Gower Street Analytics now expects global cinema box office to reach $35.7bn in 2026, the data company’s chief executive Dimitrios Mitsinikos said during Celluloid Junkie’s CJ Cinema Summit webcast on Thursday 29 October. Gower Street published the new projection on its site on 30 October. It is $1bn, or 2.9%, above the $34.7bn the company gave in April before CinemaCon, by our calculation, and above its first estimate of $35bn from December 2025.
Key facts
- 2026 global box office forecast: $35.7bn (Gower Street Analytics, 29–30 October 2026)
- Earlier estimates: $35bn in December 2025, $34.7bn in April 2026
- 2025 global total: $33.55bn; 2019, the record year: $42.3bn
- January–September 2026: $27.3bn worldwide, 8% ahead of the same period of 2025
- Reported split: North America $10.5bn, rest of the world excluding China $19.7bn, China $5.5bn
At $35.7bn, 2026 would be the best year for cinemas since 2019 and the first to pass 2023’s $33.9bn, which Gower Street counts as the post-pandemic high. It would also be about 6% above the $33.55bn Gower Street estimates for 2025; Deadline puts the rise at 6.3%. The gap to 2019 would still be about $6.6bn. For distributors and exhibitors setting 2027 budgets, the revision suggests that North America and the markets outside China are carrying the year, while China shrinks.
Where the extra money is coming from
Gower Street’s announcement gives only the global figure; the regional slides were shown in the webcast. Deadline reported on 30 October that the forecast is made up of $10.5bn for North America, $19.7bn for the rest of the world outside China and $5.5bn for China. Rentrak’s global newsletter, quoted by Deadline, said that would mean an 18% rise in North America, close to 14% growth elsewhere outside China, and a fall of about 26% in China, where admissions and ticket prices have dropped.
The three figures add up to $35.7bn, and the growth rates line up with Gower Street’s own 2025 totals of $8.87bn for North America, $17.3bn for the rest of the world outside China and $7.4bn for China, by our calculation.
Set against Gower Street’s April numbers, which were $9.75bn, $18.38bn and $6.55bn, the reported split implies that North America has gained about $750m since the spring and the markets outside China about $1.3bn, while China has lost about $1bn. The April cut for China followed the weakest Chinese New Year holiday week of any post-pandemic year, Gower Street said at the time. Its forecast-year figures use current exchange rates and historical rates for earlier years, so part of any year-on-year change reflects currency moves.
The year so far
Gower Street’s September report put global takings for January–September at $27.3bn. July–September brought in $10.7bn, the biggest quarter of the decade and 3% above the third quarter of 2023, when Barbie and Oppenheimer opened. North America stood at $7.9bn after nine months, up 19% on 2025, and the rest of the world outside China at $15.1bn, up 20%. China had $4.4bn, 29% down on last year and its lowest nine-month total of the decade apart from 2020 and 2022.
Among the year’s biggest releases, Spider-Man: Brand New Day had taken $2.50bn worldwide by the end of September and The Odyssey $1.76bn, Gower Street said. In China the local comedy-drama Once Upon a Time in the Middle East had $347m by then and became the country’s No. 2 title of the year in early October.
Local releases have done much of the work outside North America. When it raised its estimate for the markets outside China in April, Gower Street credited breakout titles such as Spain’s Torrente, presidente, South Korea’s The King’s Warden, Taiwan’s Sunshine Women’s Choir and, held over from December, Italy’s Buen camino. Our recent market reports show the same pattern: Korea’s January–September admissions, PVR INOX’s record quarter in India and Brazil’s reported ticket sales passing the whole of 2025 by October. In Saudi Arabia, 2025 takings rose 9% as takings from local films doubled. Our China coverage this year includes the weak opening of the AI-made Sanxingdui: Past Events of the Future.
What has to happen next
To reach $35.7bn, cinemas need about $8.4bn worldwide in October–December, by our calculation from Gower Street’s figures. The final quarter includes a new Hunger Games film, Disney’s Hexed and The Cat in the Hat in November, and Dune: Part Three, Avengers: Doomsday and Jumanji: Open World in December. Gower Street will announce its first full projection for 2027 in December; Mitsinikos previewed the 2027 slate quarter by quarter in the webcast.
Our reading
The upgrade is a bet on the last quarter as much as a record of the first three. The net gain of $1bn hides a bigger shift: about $2bn more from North America and the markets outside China, offset by about $1bn less from China, if the reported split holds. Both Hollywood titles and local releases are pulling audiences in the growing markets. For sellers and buyers working outside the US, that is the more useful signal: growth this year has not depended on one market or one studio.
China is the counterweight. A market that took more than a fifth of global box office in 2025 is heading for about 15% of the 2026 total on the reported figures, which changes how much a China release can add to a film’s worldwide plan. The next evidence is the December slate’s opening weekends and Gower Street’s 2027 projection, which will show whether it expects China to recover or the rest of the world to keep carrying the business.
Sources
- Gower Street Analytics, 2026 projection presented at the CJ Cinema Summit, 30 October 2026
- Gower Street Analytics, September 2026 global box office report
- Gower Street Analytics, revised 2026 estimate ahead of CinemaCon, April 2026
- Gower Street Analytics, first 2026 estimate, December 2025
- Gower Street Analytics, 2025 global total
- Deadline (regional split, quoting Rentrak's global newsletter), 30 October 2026